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Recent economic trends in the United States reveal a striking divergence: a substantial decrease in available positions coinciding with a robust performance in the stock market. This phenomenon, highlighted by a widely circulated graphic, has sparked considerable debate regarding its underlying causes. While the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) is frequently cited as a potential factor, many experts, including journalist Derek Thompson, contend that the reality is more intricate, pointing to the Federal Reserve's monetary policies as the key driver of this economic split.

Since November 2022, following the introduction of advanced AI models such as ChatGPT, the S&P 500 index has experienced an impressive surge of over 70%. Concurrently, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates a noticeable contraction in the job market, with available positions declining by approximately 30%. Specifically, job openings, which peaked at 11.5 million in March 2022, had fallen to 7.18 million by August 2025. During the same timeframe, the S&P 500 climbed from roughly 3,840 to nearly 6,700, reflecting a 74% increase. This stark contrast led Thompson to label the visual representation of these trends as 'the most unsettling chart globally,' suggesting a more nuanced interpretation than simply blaming AI.

Thompson's analysis, as reported by Fortune, emphasizes that the primary catalyst for this economic disparity is not solely AI but rather the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate adjustments. Commencing in March 2022, the Fed initiated a series of rate hikes aimed at curbing inflationary pressures. These measures increased borrowing costs, which in turn dampened business investment and subsequently led to reduced hiring across various sectors. Industries particularly sensitive to credit conditions, such as construction and manufacturing, experienced the most significant declines in job vacancies. For instance, construction job openings plummeted by nearly 40% year-over-year by late 2024, according to data from Employ America.

Beyond monetary policy, other factors have also contributed to the constrained labor market. Trade and immigration policies, including restrictions implemented under the Trump administration, have been identified as hindering workforce expansion. Estimates from the National Foundation for American Policy suggest that these immigration policies could lead to a reduction of 15 million in the U.S. workforce over the next decade and a one-third decrease in annual GDP growth. While the job market faced these headwinds, the stock market's ascent was largely propelled by AI-related companies. JPMorgan's research indicates that three-quarters of the S&P 500's gains since late 2022 originated from firms heavily invested in AI, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet. These companies collectively generated an estimated $5 trillion in household wealth, though this concentration has raised concerns about potential market bubble risks, as cautioned by Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett.

The impact of AI on employment remains multifaceted and uneven. Research from Stanford found that early-career professionals in fields susceptible to AI integration experienced a 13% drop in employment. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a nearly 18% growth in software jobs by 2033, illustrating the selective nature of AI's influence. This creates what Thompson describes as 'two economies right now—a booming AI economy and a lackluster everything-else economy.' The ongoing debate centers on whether this economic schism will persist or ultimately resolve, defining the future trajectory of America's economic landscape.

The current economic climate is a complex interplay of several forces, including the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening, restrictive trade and immigration policies, and a booming investment in artificial intelligence on Wall Street. These elements contribute to the broader economic situation, alongside warnings from prominent figures such as Bank of America Corp. CEO Brian Moynihan about potential economic slowdowns, and Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk's concerns regarding the national debt and Social Security's future solvency. These varied perspectives underscore the intricate challenges and uncertainties facing the U.S. economy as it navigates this period of transformation.